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Security intelligence is one of the critical topics in the entire world.  The various changes in the technology, social organization, and the security arrangements in and among the states demand novel approaches and structures to ensure human security. For instance, terrorism, transnational crime and insurgency pose serious challenges to the intelligence and security structures. The new security structures and legal regimes are coming up and the traditional structures do not easily adapt to them. The societal organization's shifts needs new approaches and structures for achieving the security and establishing the intelligence to support the policy requirements. This essay explores the emergence open source movement, terrorism early warning and the intelligence co-production as some of the new ways of approaching the intelligence, together with a role of research,  the analytical tradecraft, and education as the potential drivers for the reform of intelligence.

Understanding the Need for Intelligence Reform

The intelligence is essential to formulating the sound policy and responses. The intelligence organization should establish where the danger lies and address the global threats of terrorism and strategic crimes. The organization should embrace the new approaches and support many of decision-makers than the traditional intelligence entities (Johnson K. 2007. Pg 116).


Knowing the enemy and yourself

Knowing the opposing force's capabilities and intentions is the major foundation of intelligence.  In order to gain this knowledge, many intelligence disciplines must be involved. All this seeks to discern several essential elements of information for a decision-maker. It involves the weather, enemy, tactics and threat. Also, our own capabilities knowledge is vital because it assists in defining the information needs and place potential threats into the right operational context (Ranstop M. 2007. Pg 38).

Understanding and properly utilizing these intelligences will assist in addressing the information requirements for combating the global terrorism. The first difference is between the foreign and the domestic intelligence. This is important as it limits the activities of the intelligence agencies. This variation is based in the experience of the conflict among the states and is designed to preserve the liberties of citizens within a state and it limits the abuse of secret information as a form state coercion of the residents. In the America, this is seen in the separation of intelligence operations from the internal security and the law enforcement functions of the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the local police agencies that are concerned with the criminal intelligence. These same distinctions are seen in Secret Intelligence Service of the UK.

Co-Production of Intelligence

Basically all the intelligence seeks to inform decision. In order to achieve the understanding that is required in deciding the analysis and synthesis of ideas, concepts, actions, intentions and data, they are supposed to be put in context. When facing many diverse adversaries this is a difficult task that requires the collection and the analysis of timely, accurate and pertinent information. Since the criminals operate within some networks globally, a networked approach to both acquisition and interpretation of data is essential for both current and the new evolving threats. One example of the novel approach to developing a networked predictive intelligence analysis is the Terrorism Early Warning group concept that was started in Los Angeles in the year 1996. It brought together the local, state, and federal law enforcement and health analysts together with the respective private sector counterparts to develop the counterterrorism intelligence products for Los Angeles.  Through this, Terrorism Early Warning group embraced the open source intelligence and the collaborative assessment and analysis. (Johnson K. 2007. Pg 123).

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Intelligence Preparation for Operations

Intelligence preparation for operations is a civil analog to the military's intelligence preparation of the battlefield. It is designed to serve response information requirement and can form the foundation for public-private interaction to develop the intelligence products needed in the addressing of complex networked threats. It also provides standard tools for the situational recognition, response rehearsal and course-of-action development. This process bridges the gap that exists between the deliberate planning and the crisis action planning for all facets of the unified multi-organizational response organization (Kantowitz H. 2005. pg 32)

Transaction Analysis Cycle

The Transaction Analysis Cycle is a non-linear analytical approach for discerning the terrorist activities within dynamic and diffuse data sets which has a lot of uncertainty. The individual transactions such as the acquiring of finances, expertise, material, capability, recruiting members, mission rehearsal and conducting an attack have are identified as terrorist or criminal acts, or consistent with the operations of a specific group. These transactions can be observed and matched with patterns of activity that can be expressed as trends and potentials which can ultimately be assessed in terms of a specific actor's capabilities and intentions. At any given point, the analytical team can posit a hypothesis on the pattern of activity and then establish a collection plan to seek specific transactions that confirm or disapprove its hypothesis. Therefore, the transaction analysis cycle provides a suitable framework for the assessment of the patterns, hypotheses and social network links between actors within a certain context. This makes co-production of intelligence and situational understanding very viable. These approaches provide an alternative to traditional military intelligence and can provide a foundation of praxis for the new theory of intelligence for global security. Intelligence analysis is a foundational element of intelligence. There are some steps needed to improve analysis itself, as well as the requirements for creating the organizational environment where analytical excellence can flourish. They include the research, exposure to alternative mind-sets, training and guiding.

Utilization of OSINT (Open source intelligence)

OSINT involves the acquiring of information from the publicly available sources and analyzing it to come up with actionable intelligence. This will ensure the real time access to the information that is necessary for the innovation and creativity in the analytical process. It leads to the reshaping of the intelligence community and the involved decision makers. It also serves the analytical approaches, the tradecraft and development of models that supports the intelligence for the current and the evolving geo-social environments. The analytical tradecraft is an important driver of the intelligence reforms (McDowell D. 2009 pg 76).

Utilization of HUMINT (Human Intelligence)

This is the gathering of information through the human contact. It is, along with the signals intelligence and imagery intelligence, one of the three means of intelligence gathering. It is especially important in discerning terrorist threats, since technical means are a poor indicator of terrorist capabilities and an especially poor indicator of terrorist intentions. Understanding why, when and how a group may choose to attack requires (Human Intelligence Collector Operations. 2010).

Virtually all agree that accurate and actionable intelligence is essential. To achieve that charge is sometimes extremely complicated. Basically, intelligence provides understanding. Kent Sherman, the Yale-educated theoretician of the early US intelligence community, would have termed this knowledge as a knowledge that is based on the effective relationship between the intelligence and its users. As Kent noted, there is a need to establish an understanding of the intelligence. He viewed intelligence as an analytical discipline that resulted in all source analysis. As a consequence, the collection and all source assessment led to a finished product that supports the decision-makers. In his view, the intelligence production was more than the raw collection, but included collection, analysis, integration and interpretation of all the available information to support planning and operations. His views serve a good guidance negotiating the current and future threats.

We must also bear in mind that the classical human intelligence is a vital piece of this puzzle, one that can never be purged in favor of technical means, however attractive and risk neutral they may initially appear. Combating terrorism and strategic crime is the decisive conflict of this present time. To succeed we will need to recognize that this conflict is entirely an intelligence war. The clandestine and covert services working together with other elements of government such as the military and police will likely be at the cutting edge of domestic and the international efforts to contain terrorism and forge domestic and foreign policy.

To do so, many factors should be balanced including the balancing of foreign and domestic, pulls of intelligence to users, the demand for the immediate scoop against the strategically relevant product, the tension between the criminal and intelligence investigations, the balance between the sharing and security and the balance between the intrusive protection and liberty. We are at the frontier of the intelligence war. Like Kent at the formation of US intelligence community, we should start the dialogues to build discipline and knowledge necessary to evolve an understanding of the intelligence for the conflict of our time. The sooner we resolve these critical issues and define the intelligence for combating networked adversaries, the sooner we thwart the threat and preserve the liberties of persons of good will worldwide.

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